Hiring, quits slowed further in November, but HR should prepare for changes in 2025

What’s cooler than being cool? The labor market, apparently.

Total hires and quits fell again in November, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, published on Tuesday, continuing the overall cooldown in the labor market. While recent interest rate cuts from the Fed are expected to allow businesses to invest more in hiring, the labor market has yet to benefit from these changes—meaning employees will continue to stay put at their employers for now.

“The Fed is starting [to cut] rates, and there’s reasons to expect the consumer to be strengthened, and businesses be strengthened by lower borrowing costs, but we don’t see the evidence yet of a turnaround in the labor market,” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist, told HR Brew.

Diving into the data. Total hires in November fell to 5.3 million, down from 5.4 million in October and declining 300,000 from the year prior. Quits also declined to 3.1 million in November, marking a 451,000 decrease from the year prior.

“We’re seeing less hiring and less quitting, which are signs that employees are finding it difficult to get better opportunities in the open market.” Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor’s senior economist, told HR Brew.

Employers posted 8.1 million job openings at the end of November, up from 7.8 million in October—a surprise for some economists, who expected just 7.74 million openings, according to one survey. But celebrating the spike in job openings may be premature: Despite the monthly increase, job openings declined 833,000 year over year.

“When you look at the economic data we’re getting now, holistically, job openings is a bit of an outlier,” Zhao said. “Where other indicators show that the job market has cooled, likely below where we were before the pandemic, job openings are still a little bit hotter.”

Similarly, while professional and business services had 1.8 million openings in November, an increase of 273,000 since October—the highest monthly spike of any industry—but hire rates for the sector have fallen to their lowest levels since 2009 at the end of the Great Recession.

Zoom out. While the Fed’s rate cuts haven’t yet reached the labor market, there are some signs of strengthening business. For example, total vehicle sales reached their highest volume since the pandemic in 2024, a sign that consumers are beginning to feel comfortable making large purchases again, Pollak said.

“I think businesses will want to see high activity and high purchases for a more sustained period before they invest in new hiring. But this first step at least, is taking place,” she said.

HR leaders, particularly those whose recruiting teams and budgets were slashed in recent years, could position themselves as strategic partners to their fellow C-suite leaders, especially their finance chief, and use data-backed arguments to proactively request more resources ahead of any hiring surge.

“They need to talk to their finance teams or CFOs, [and] show a chart like total vehicle sales and say, ‘Hey, lower interest rates are actually filtering into the economy now and boosting activity. And we’re going to have an opportunity this year to fight for a higher share of wallet and more sales, more business, but we need to be able to staff up to do that, so now is the time to invest in our teams,’” Pollak said.

Additionally, HR leaders can ensure now that they aren’t mistaking less attrition for successful retention strategies. Many employees have reported feeling stuck in their current roles, and could head for the door once more opportunities become available.

“Employers and HR leaders risk being caught flat footed when the job market starts to pick back up,” Zhao said. “If the job market heats back up in 2025, all of those people are going to hit the door. This is something that a lot of leaders are not necessarily prepared for.”