November was such a whirlwind, October might as well have been 50 years ago at this point.
As such, October’s job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics feels a bit like a time capsule, as some industries were gearing up for holiday and winter busy seasons, while overall the labor market continued to cool down, possibly in anticipation of next year. Let’s take a closer look.
Diving into the data. Employers reported 5.3 million hires in October, down month over month from 5.6 million in September, and 7.7 million job openings, up slightly from the 7.4 million posted the month prior. Total separations changed little at 5.3 million in October, up from 5.2 million in September, but total quits increased by more than 228,000 to 3.3 million in October.
Across the board, all metrics in the JOLTS report were down year over year in October, keeping in line with the labor market’s gradual cooldown. Job openings fell 941,000 over the year, while hiring was down 501,000, total separations fell by 369,000, and quits dropped by 308,000. This might be expected, as hiring tends to slow down at the end of the year, but other factors, including the election, were giving employers pause on their hiring plans.
“The October data, in my mind, is pretty much in line with what was going on in the economy at that point,” Scott Hamilton, global chairman of HR and compensation consulting at Gallagher, said. Though he noted he is anxious to see whether job openings trend down in the November JOLTS data, due next month, as employers prepare for next year.
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Heating up for the holidays. Regardless, certain sectors of the labor market continue to see strong hiring, particularly those employing service or frontline workers, Rachel Sederberg, senior economist and director at research firm Lightcast, noted. According to Lightcast’s own data, in October large employers like Walmart and Amazon saw a lot of hiring activity, likely in preparation for the holiday season. Similarly, there were more openings for registered nurses as well, ahead of flu season.
“[It’s] still a very service sector focused economy, still a lot of strength in that part of the US economy, which stands to reason with the experiences we’re hearing anecdotally for those with a bachelor’s degree or more that like, it’s a tougher economy, they’re feeling a little bit different,” Sederberg said.
In industries where competition for labor remains strong, HR pros will want to keep focused on strategies that support recruitment and retention. It’s “hard to fill a bucket when you’ve got a hole in it,” Hamilton said, in reference to the increased quit rates in the JOLTS data.
One key place to look at is benefits offerings.
“Smart or high performing employers continue to ask employees: ‘What works for you? Let’s try and figure out a support package of compensation, benefits, work-life balance, and other things, including mental health,” Hamilton said. “The conversation…where employers are really looking hard at understanding the preferences of today’s workforce and trying to make sure that they’re offering a combination of rewards and benefits that meet the preferences of today’s workforce, continues [at] pace. That’s not stopping.”