The latest JOLTS report shows even more cooling in the labor market, but the biggest takeaways lie beneath the top-level data

The job market seems to be finally landing after what’s felt like the longest, bumpiest ride ever.

Job openings posted on the last day of July fell to a new low since January 2021, according to the newest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. Meanwhile, hiring changed little and total separations increased in July, while total job openings, hires, and separations in June were downwardly revised from what was initially reported last month. Altogether, this data shows a labor market steadily cooling down from the record-high turnover seen during the Great Resignation, and nearing pre-pandemic levels.

“The economy is landing, whether it’s soft or hard, TBD, but I’m really thinking that the data itself is really coming together to paint a much more meaningful picture of the slowing of the economy,” Scott Hamilton, global chairman of HR and compensation consulting at Gallagher, told HR Brew.

For HR leaders, the best takeaways from this data will require a deep dive into their own industry and region. But before that, let’s take a look at the main takeaways from the report.

The big numbers. Data shows a reported 7.7 million job openings on the last day of July, a decrease of nearly 200,000 from the downwardly revised 7.9 million reported in June, and a 1.1 million year-over-year decline. Hires increased little to 5.5 million in July, up from 5.2 million in June, but fell by 212,000 positions from July 2023.

Total separations increased to 5.4 million in July, up from a downwardly revised 5.1 million seen in June. Layoffs and discharges increased slightly, from 1.6 million in June to 1.8 million in July, and quits changed little, from 3.2 million to 3.3 million in that same period.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates later this month, and Wednesday’s JOLTS report and Friday’s jobs report could call for larger cuts than what was originally expected.

“I really think the interest rate decisions that are coming up are going to be very important when you get into where people are investing money and the kind of jobs that are created, like construction,” Hamilton said. “Everything’s in a holding pattern because everybody’s waiting for the interest rates to come down.”

Zoom in. The JOLTS data will better serve HR leaders when they take a closer look at the numbers based on their industry and region, Bill Venteicher, senior director of product marketing at talent experience platform Phenom said.

“You need to take all of this with a grain of salt and you really have to dig down into the data to figure out how this information should be impacting your strategies for your business, and not react so much to the national averages and the reactions from the media,” he said.

For example, total separations in healthcare and social assistance increased by 108,000 to 738,000 in July, most of which were quits. While job openings in the industry decreased by 187,000, the sector still had more than 1,431,000 openings at the end of the month, the second highest behind professional and business services. The job market in this sector remains highly volatile, he said, and HR leaders in this sector should consider implementing short-term retention strategies including skills training, promotions and recognition, “stay interviews,” or flexibility offerings like travel nurse programs.