Employers expect to slow hiring next quarter, but AI talent is top of mind

Just as summer is heating up, a new batch of economic data suggests the labor market is continuing to cool down. The number of job openings fell slightly to 8.1 million in April, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released on June 4, the lowest level since February 2021. Meanwhile, companies added 152,000 jobs to their payrolls in May, fewer than analysts expected, ADP reported June 5. The BLS June 7 jobs report painted a more rosy picture, with employers adding 272,000 jobs in May, but unemployment rose to 4%, suggesting Americans returning to the workforce were not able to find jobs.

Workforce solutions firm ManpowerGroup also projected that employers will slow hiring over the next quarter, according to a new report released on June 11. ManpowerGroup found a positive net employment outlook (NEO) of 22% in Q3 2024, a 6-percentage-point drop from the same period last year. The ManpowerGroup data draws on a survey of more than 40,000 employers across 42 different countries. Among US employers, the NEO was +30%, down 4% from the previous quarter. “What this really means is, the job market is starting to moderate a little bit, cool a little bit,” said Rajesh Namboothiry, SVP with Manpower US. “It is still resilient, but it is slowing down a little bit.” In the US, the fact that interest rates are holding steady is likely factoring into employers’ decisions not to make any major hires, he added.

AI adoption. Even as some employers hold off on hiring, the AI boom is affecting how they’re thinking about future talent acquisition, the ManpowerGroup report suggested. More than one-half of global employers (55%) said they expect to increase their headcount over the next two years due to AI and machine learning.

Employers are thinking about hiring talent with skill sets that align with their businesses’ plans for “AI strategy, machine learning strategy, [and] automation strategy,” Namboothiry said. Given the fact that demand for candidates with AI skills outpaces the supply of talent, employers may be thinking about, “how we ladder up our current population of talent, or how do we source proactively so that we can hang on to that talent when the time is ripe for us,” he added.

Not all employees are equally optimistic about AI adoption, ManpowerGroup found. In most geographical regions, workers in senior leadership were more likely to report believing that “AI will have a positive impact on the future of work” than lower-level employees. Some 68% of North American workers in senior leadership expressed this view, compared to 59% of factory and frontline workers.

To deal with some of the anxieties expressed by employees about AI—particularly those who are rank and file—HR can think about “redesigning” jobs rather than eliminating them, Namboothiry said. ManpowerGroup has been advising clients on how roles in their organizations are likely to shift over the next few years due to AI so they can build “readiness” among their workforces, he added. “It is about making sure that they have that communication, that conversation, and offer pathways for upskilling their talent.”

Correction 06/12/24: This piece has been updated to reflect that the survey was conducted by ManpowerGroup, not Manpower.